Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 9/4/2025
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 50.0% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 49.6% | -0.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.7% | -0.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.7 |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.2 |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.5% | -0.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.2 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tome of Ignorance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Galed Erasure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |